Lakeway Airpark is 215% safer than the average accident rate for all phases of flight in the U.S.

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This is especially remarkable as Airports tend to have higher, not lower, accident rates than cruise flying, which is included in the baseline comparison for the national averages below.

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Findings

Airplane accidents are measured by the number of accidents per 100,000 flight hours flown by general aviation airplanes in the USA. Today this rate is 3.5 total accidents per 100,000 hours flown by general aviation airplanes in the USA.

Both the overall airplane accident rate and the fatal rate have decreased steadily in the last 30 years. The Lakeway airpark has experienced only three airplane accidents beyond the airport boundary and within the greater Lakeway community in the last 30 years.

Using the data from the FlightAware tracking source as of February 2, 2022, for arrivals and departures from the Lakeway Airpark (3R9 identifier), there were 3553 arrivals / departures in the six-month period from July 2, 2021 to February 2, 2022. Projecting this out for a 12-month period, this would be 7106 arrivals / departures. Using an average of 52 minutes flight time per sortie base on the averaging of flight times shown in the FlightAware data, this gives 7106 X 52 minutes of flight time or 0.865 hours of flight X 7106 flights = 6146 hours flown into or out of 3R9 in 12 months.

Again, Lakeway has experienced three airplane accidents beyond the airport boundary and within the greater Lakeway community in the last 30 years. 30 years X 6146 hours (30 X 6146) = 184,380 flight hours wherein there were 3 accidents. This is an accident rate for 3R9 of 3 accidents per 184,380 flight hours.

Again, the national rate is 3.5 accidents per 100,000 flight hours compared to the accident rate for 3R9 of 3 accidents per 184,380 flight hours.

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Math

Taking national average: 100,000 / 3.5 = 28,571. 1 accident every 28,571 hours.

Taking 3R9 actuals: 184,380 / 3 = 61,460. 1 accident every 61,460 flight hours.

Comparison: 61,460/28,571 = 2.15 times or 215% safer.

Comparing this data to the average flight time per flights to and from Lakeway, the accident rate for the Lakeway airpark is lower than the overall USA rates by a factor of approximately one half. Again, these conclusions are estimates and the flight hours can only reflect the current rates.

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Data Sources:

FlightAware flight report for 3R9, Lakeway Airpark (FlightAware.com)

Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association 31st Annual Nall Report (AOPA.org)

National Transportation Safety Board (www.ntsb.gov)

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Special Thanks to Bill Gunn, Safety Board Member

27 years as a contract instructor for the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association

21 years in the USAF flying the RF-4C reconnaissance aircraft worldwide. 21 years as compliance manager for the state of Texas Aviation Division, dealing with community relations and contract compliance for the 276 public use general aviation airports in Texas. Contract instructor for the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association Air Safety Institute for 27 years teaching flight instructor refresher clinics and pilot safety seminars in the USA. Guest instructor for the Australian Civil Aviation Safety  Authority (CASA) 1991 to assist creating re-currency training for Australian flying instructors. FAA flight instructor of the year 1993 for the Southwest region of the USA. He is an Airline Transport Pilot, Certified Flight Instrument Instructor, Multi Engine Instrument Instructor, Commercial Glider Pilot, and a former Airman Certificate Authority for the FAA. He is a graduate of the FAA's compliance management course and assisted in technical corrections to the FAA's compliance handbook, FAA Order 5190.6B. He holds a BBA from UT Austin and a MS degree from Troy University, Europe. 

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